Reflections on the first half of 2026 and a forecast for the new semester
The first half of the year has reminded us of several key principles of financial investment and has confirmed some trends that continue to surprise us.
The rule holds true once again: neither wars nor deranged politicians can change one of the fundamental principles of investing, which is that investing with a long-term vision, maintaining efficient asset diversification consistent with each investor’s risk tolerance, and without worrying too much about short-term noise, is the best way to obtain a stable average return in the financial markets while also avoiding unnecessary hardship. If we add, essential nowadays, active management that more dynamically identifies risks and opportunities, we see why well-advised investors have emerged more than unscathed from the, at least seemingly, over energy crisis.
The transformation of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
For several years now, we’ve been witnessing a historic concentration of profits in very few technology companies. The perennial question returns: Are we facing a valuation bubble inflated by the AI narrative, or do fundamentals justify these high prices? In terms of valuation, Big Tech and the sector in general aren’t currently that expensive, but only if their businesses continue to generate high revenues that offset the massive capital expenditures they’re making. The big question, as we know, lies in the real impact of AI, both on the businesses of technology companies and other sectors, as well as on the specialized companies within the AI ecosystem.
While the situation in the Middle East has dominated the news in recent months, another war with far-reaching implications has been unfolding. Tech giants are engaged in a fierce investment battle to fuel their growth, believing that AI is one of the most significant technological advancements, if not the most significant, of our time. Consequently, chip companies are currently the big winners, with Nvidia, TSMC, AMD, and Broadcom leading the way.
Demand for data centers far exceeds supply, and the sector appears to be thriving. The challenge for many is securing the necessary components to build these centers, including power and water supplies, given their enormous energy consumption for system operation and cooling.
Much of the AI debate focuses on cutting-edge models and who is ahead, so the most important question will be diffusion —that is, who can extend AI across the entire economy and do so cost-effectively. This is why leadership in general-purpose technologies tends to depend less on mere invention and more on large-scale adoption by industries, businesses, and workers.
In any case, when investing in this area, it’s advisable to exercise particular caution, as it’s a rapidly evolving field . Furthermore, government intervention appears to be increasing, which could further complicate the analysis of business results.
The forecast
There are always risks lurking in the markets, and now is no different. The long-term drivers of capital markets are human ingenuity, creativity, and productivity, and these translate into economic growth, increased corporate profits, and ultimately, stock market appreciation and wealth creation .
These driving forces tend to rise above the noise, just as, as investors, we must set aside short-term distractions. With the AI revolution and other technological advancements, coupled with the productivity gains and entrepreneurial dynamism that have characterized the US and global economies over the past few years of change and adaptation, there are compelling reasons to be optimistic and maintain a positive outlook while taking a constructive approach to equities for the remainder of the year.